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CX2SA > SWPC 04.08.17 23:22l 62 Lines 2251 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15860-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170804/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:15860 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:15860-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 783 km/s at 04/1541Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 04/0620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 04/0626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 432 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 074
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 024/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 016/020-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 65/45/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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