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CX2SA > SWPC 14.08.17 07:57l 61 Lines 2214 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15927-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<CX2SA
Sent: 170805/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:15927 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:15927-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 794 km/s at 05/1216Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 04/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/2239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6433 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (06 Aug, 08 Aug)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 074
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 011/012-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/30
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 45/25/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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