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CX2SA > SWPC 17.08.17 23:23l 63 Lines 2361 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17020-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170817/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17020 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17020-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (18 Aug, 19 Aug) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 594 km/s at 17/1851Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 17/0733Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 17/0820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 330 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (19 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (20 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 077
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 078/077/076
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 023/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 019/024-015/018-012/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 65/50/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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