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CX2SA > SWPC 22.08.17 23:23l 63 Lines 2327 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17451-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170822/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17451 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17451-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/1750Z from Region 2671 (N10W31). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Aug,
24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 684 km/s at 22/0656Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 22/0149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 22/0149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 31128 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (25 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 090
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 22 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 013/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 018/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 40/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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