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CX2SA > SWPC 23.08.17 23:23l 63 Lines 2330 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17530-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170823/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17530 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17530-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1343Z from Region 2672 (N08E34). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Aug,
25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 23/1755Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 23/0942Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 23/1655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3710 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (26 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 085
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 016/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 011/014-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 35/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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