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CX2SA > SWPC 25.08.17 00:01l 63 Lines 2297 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17606-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170824/2249Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17606 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17606-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 24 2235 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
24/0037Z from Region 2671 (N11W56). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Aug,
26 Aug, 27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 23/2153Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 24/1018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/1008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3701 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 079
Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 079/080/078
90 Day Mean 24 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 017/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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