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CX2SA > SWPC 25.08.17 23:21l 64 Lines 2394 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17679-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170825/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17679 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17679-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
25/0727Z from Region 2672 (N07E05). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 388 km/s at 25/0136Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
25/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7705 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (28 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M 15/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 081
Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 081/080/078
90 Day Mean 25 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 016/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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