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CX2SA > SWPC 28.08.17 23:22l 62 Lines 2282 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17941-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170828/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17941 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17941-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 28/1839Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 28/1801Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
28/1757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 409 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to active
levels on day two (30 Aug) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(31 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 082
Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 082/084/084
90 Day Mean 28 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 007/008-012/015-024/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/35
Minor Storm 01/10/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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