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CX2SA > SWPC 29.08.17 23:23l 63 Lines 2355 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18002-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170829/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18002 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18002-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/0300Z from Region 2674 (N11E70). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 1127 km/s at 28/2101Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 29/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
29/1826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1628 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (30 Aug) and active to
minor storm levels on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 084
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 084/086/086
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 017/020-024/030-023/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor Storm 10/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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