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CX2SA > SWPC 31.08.17 23:23l 63 Lines 2260 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18174-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170831/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18174 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18174-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/2311Z from Region 2674 (N14E64). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Sep,
02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 719 km/s at 31/1217Z. Total IMF
reached 31 nT at 31/0618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 31/0539Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 092
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 092/092/091
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 025/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 016/024-015/016-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/25
Minor Storm 35/10/10
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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