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OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.09.17 14:39l 151 Lines 5615 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Date: Wed, 6 Sep 2017 12:51:24 GMT
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU249
UGEOA 30512 70906 1254/ 9930/
12062 24062 37062
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 06 Sep 2017 until 08 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 073
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 093
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 017
COMMENT: After yesterdays multiple M flares from Catania group 46 (NOAA
active region 2673) this region first seemed to become less activite but
this was just the prelude to the X2.2 flare that it generated this morning
peaking at 9:10UT. While writing this report another X9.3 flare from this
region appeared to be ongoing (peak time 12:02UT) with associated radio
bursts of large magnitude recorded in multiple wavelengths.
Given the persistent complexity of the region and the magnitude of the
ongoing flaring observed, we expect further flaring at M level from this
region with a very significant chance for further X flares.
Several radio bursts were observed in relation to the X2.2 flare. Currently
available coronagraph data show some ejecta towards the South West
following the X2.2 flare, but the angular extent appears to be limited.
No other Earth directed CMEs are visible in coronagraph data.
The >10 MeV proton flux values reached a peak of near 200pfu around 19:30UT
before declining again to currently around 25pfu. No increase was recorded
following the X2.2 flare. But renewed increases should be anticipated in
relation with the ongoing activity.
Solar wind was recovering over the past 24 hours towards nominal conditions
with no sign yet of the arrival of the September 4 CME.
Solar wind speed decreased to under 475 km/s and total magnetic field was
nominally below 5nT.
This afternoon we should see increased solar wind conditions with the
arrival of the September 4 CME which may increase solar wind speed to over
800 km/s.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 1-3, NOAA
Kp 2-3).
Associated with the arrival of the September 4 CME, geomagnetic storms
are
expected to set in over the next 24 hours and persist into the next 48
hours. Storm levels may reach major or possibly severe levels.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 113, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70906 1254/ 05///
10148 21210 3015/ 4//// 80207 91420
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
05 1737 1743 1751 S09W24 M2.3 1N 46/2673
06 0857 0910 0917 S07W33 X2.2 SF 410 46/2673 VI/1
06 1153 1202 1210 ////// X9.3 12000/////// III/2II/2
END
UGEOR 30512 70906 1254/ 06/06 06106
10046 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50910 60045 33308 29643
10047 2//// 3//// 4652/ 50730 60027 41814 15000
10049 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 37909 00000
10049 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 37909 00000
10050 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 13419 00000
10052 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50060 60007 14011 00000
10051 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 40517 00000
99999
USSPS 31405 06068 14232 46091 33308 55445 47073 41814 54627 49001 37909
0/101 50001 13419 0/101 51001 40517 0/101 52006 14011 25407
USSPS 32404 04064 13122 67052 30508 57436 68070 11015 47633 69008 46606
21404 70007 35409 21405 71004 16217 21403
USSPS 21305 04145 12142 72001 15619 0/102 69080 10515 57439 68095 31010
57622 71002 36010 01204 70002 37005 01204
UMAGF 30503 70906 1004/ 05069 1/014 22222 33211
UMAGF 31523 70906 0000/ 05008 1/015 24332 32342
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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