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OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.09.17 13:41l 132 Lines 4741 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2017 12:38:51 GMT
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
To: solar@eu
:Issued: 2017 Sep 12 1238 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU255
UGEOA 30512 70912 1238/ 9930/
10122 21122 37122
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 12 Sep 2017 until 14 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Solar activity is rather low with only one C-class flare reported
in the last 24 hours. The C3.0 flare (peaked at 07:49 UT today), originated
from the Catania sunspot group 55 (NOAA AR 2680), and was associated with
the shock wave (type II radio burst was reported by HUMAIN station).
Altgouh coronagraph data are not yet available, the presence of the on-disc
CME signatures, EIT wave and coronal dimming, indicate that the flare was
associated with the CME. More will be reported when coronagraph data become
available.
We expect isolated C-class flares in the coming hours.
The particle event, associated with the X8.2 flare is still on going, but
the level of the proton fluxes is slowly decreasing, and presently only
fluxes with >10 MeV, > 50 MeV are above the event threshold.
The Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind with the speed of about
460 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT.
The CME-driven shock wave, associated with the X8.2 flare reported on
September 10, still might arrive at the Earth in the coming hours.
The fast solar wind, associated with the low latitude coronal hole in the
northern hemisphere which reached the central meridian on September 10,
is
expected to arrive at the Earth in the mid-day tomorrow, September 13.
We expect unsettled to active conditions within next 24 hours due to
arrival of the CME-driven shock wave and the fast solar wind.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70912 1238/ 11///
10034 20800 3014/ 4//// 80203 90070
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70912 1238/ 11/09 12103
10047 2//// 3//// 472// 50020 60002 47815 00000
10055 2//// 3//// 472// 50040 60001 16110 02000
10054 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 42717 00000
99999
USSPS 31405 12078 01242 55006 14910 2/902
USSPS 21305 10183 03532 75010 17010 3/801 73001 41612 0/101 69017 47112
51603
USSPS 81202 11037 02332 68003 47415 0/102 69008 16509 2/801
USSPS 32404 09059 06732 67038 37209 27411 68035 45413 51608 72005 10311
21405 73003 44315 01203
UMAGF 30503 70912 1004/ 11063 1/016 22222 33321
UMAGF 31523 70912 0000/ 11006 1/014 23222 33343
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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