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OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.09.17 13:32l 144 Lines 5040 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2017 12:30:12 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
:Issued: 2017 Sep 13 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU256
UGEOA 30512 70913 1230/ 9930/
10132 21132 37132
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 13 Sep 2017 until 15 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Strongest flare observed in the last 24 hours was the C1.6 flare
(peaked at 19:20 UT on September 12), which originated from the Catania
sunspot group 55 (NOAA AR 2680). The flare was, similarly to the C-class
flare from this active region reported yesterday, associated with the EIT
wave, coronal dimming, and rather slow and narrow CME (with projected speed
of 350 km/s and angular width of about 100 degree). This CME will not
arrive at the Earth.
We might expect more isolated C-class flares in the coming hours
(probability is about 25%), in particular from the Catania sunspot group
55
(NOAA AR 2680).
The particle event, associated with the X8.2 flare is still on going, but
the level of the proton fluxes is decreasing, and presently only fluxes
with >10 MeV are slightly above the event threshold.
The sudden jump of the solar wind speed (up to maximum value of 650 km/s)
and simultaneous increase of the density and interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude (up to 16 nT) observed at about 19:26 UT on September 12
indicated arrival of the decayed CME-driven shock wave associated with
the
X8.2 flare observed on September 10. The shock was followed by the post-
shock sheath region. The solar wind speed decreased rather fast and it
is
presently about 460 km/s.The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is
about 5 nT.
The longer intervals of the southward Bz component and fast solar wind
induced minor geomagnetic storm conditions starting at about 21:00 UT on
September 12 and lasting until about 03 UT on September 13 (local station
at Dourbes reported K=5 and NOAA reported Kp=5).
The fast solar wind, associated with the low latitude coronal hole in the
northern hemisphere which reached the central meridian on September 10,
is
expected to arrive at the Earth today. We expect quiet to active conditions
within next 24 hours due to arrival of the fast solar wind.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 018, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70913 1230/ 12///
10012 20761 3019/ 4//// 80101 90060
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70913 1230/ 13/07 13101
10055 2//// 3//// 472// 50060 60002 13510 02000
99999
USSPS 31405 13076 01242 55006 13510 2/902
USSPS 32404 11060 02322 68006 47916 2/802 75007 16510 2/801
USSPS 21305 11144 02432 75014 15908 2/801 69005 47717 0/103
USSPS 81202 12022 01132 69013 15209 2/801
UMAGF 30503 70913 1004/ 12063 1/031 22122 34542
UMAGF 31523 70913 0000/ 12003 1/019 22222 33355
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