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OK0NAG > SOLAR 14.09.17 13:33l 129 Lines 4455 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Date: Thu, 14 Sep 2017 12:30:17 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
:Issued: 2017 Sep 14 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU257
UGEOA 30512 70914 1230/ 9930/
10142 21142 37142
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 14 Sep 2017 until 16 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 006
COMMENT: The only sunspot group currently reported on the solar disk,
Catania number 55, NOAA AR 2680, is unlikely to produce flaring activity
above the B-level. No flares were reported in the past 24 hours. The proton
event associated with the halo CME on September 10 is still ongoing.
A fast forward shock was detected in the solar wind by DSCOVR around 00:21
UT on September 14, with clear jumps of the solar wind speed, density,
temperature, and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The
solar origin of the shock is unclear. The solar wind speed in the post-
shock sheath region was around 390 km/s, so the departure from the Sun
on
September 10 in association with the limb full halo CME is possible. The
IMF magnitude in the sheath did not exceed 8 nT, with the north-south IMF
component fluctuating. Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet, with both
NOAA Kp and Dourbes K indices equalling 2.
The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 410 km/s) solar wind flow.
The
increase of plasma density and the IMF magnitude in the last couple of
hours may indicate the arrival of the interaction region between the slow
and fast solar wind flows. The fast flow emanates from a low-latitude
extension of the northern polar coronal hole, and its arrival can be
expected later today. Active to minor storm conditions may be expected.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70914 1230/ 13///
10012 20750 3014/ 4//// 80001 90060
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70914 1230/ 14/09 14101
10055 2//// 3//// 472// 50070 60002 12109 01000
99999
USSPS 31405 14093 01232 55007 12109 2/902
USSPS 32404 12065 01332 75015 15009 2/803
USSPS 21305 12145 01442 75014 14609 31304
USSPS 81202 13010 01332 69010 13909 2/803
UMAGF 30503 70914 1004/ 13065 1/012 23211 32022
UMAGF 31523 70914 0000/ 13004 1/014 25232 32231
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