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CX2SA > SWPC 14.09.17 23:23l 65 Lines 2539 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19805-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170914/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:19805 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:19805-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (15 Sep) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 677 km/s at 14/1915Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 14/1425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 14/1418Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 77 pfu at 14/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 957 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (15 Sep), unsettled
to active levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (15 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (16 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 35/10/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 074
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 016/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 022/026-018/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 40/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 70/50/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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