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CX2SA > SWPC 15.09.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2284 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19992-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170915/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:19992 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:19992-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 776 km/s at 15/0629Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 15/1725Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 15/1826Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 14/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32096 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Sep) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 073
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 073/073/075
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 019/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 025/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 019/025-014/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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