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CX2SA > SWPC 17.09.17 23:23l 60 Lines 2174 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20215-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170917/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20215 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20215-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 779 km/s at 17/0251Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 17/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/1157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 46263 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Sep, 19 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 072
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 023/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 012/015-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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