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CX2SA > SWPC 18.09.17 23:23l 60 Lines 2179 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20297-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170918/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20297 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20297-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 707 km/s at 18/1034Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 17/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 18/0056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 31067 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Sep, 20 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 072
Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 072/072/073
90 Day Mean 18 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 019/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 012/014-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/40/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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