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CX2SA > SWPC 22.09.17 23:20l 61 Lines 2199 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20626-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170922/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20626 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20626-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Sep,
24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 21/2217Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/1615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/1655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 36942 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 078
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 085/090/090
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 007/008-009/012-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/30
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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