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CX2SA > SWPC 23.09.17 23:20l 61 Lines 2198 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20693-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170923/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20693 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20693-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Sep,
25 Sep, 26 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 410 km/s at 23/0904Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/0052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0343Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2143 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Sep, 25 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 081
Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 085/090/090
90 Day Mean 23 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 009/012-014/016-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/15
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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