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OK0NAG > SOLAR 24.09.17 13:34l 144 Lines 4955 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Date: Sun, 24 Sep 2017 12:30:17 GMT
To: solar@eu
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:Issued: 2017 Sep 24 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU267
UGEOA 30512 70924 1230/ 9930/
11242 21242 30242
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 24 Sep 2017 until 26 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours the solar activity was very low. Only small
B-class flares and one non-Earth directed slow-speed CME were recorded.
Catania sunspot groups 56 (NOAA active regions 2681) has increased its
magnetic complexity (from Alpha to Beta class), but has not shown any
flaring activity. The returning region NOAA active region 2682 (previously,
Catania sunspot group 46, NOAA active region 2673) is now on the visible
disc and is the source of the slow-speed CME and B-class flaring activity.
Its magnetic complexity is difficult to estimate due to the projection
effect, however, it seems to have drastically decay from the previous solar
rotation. We expect the solar activity to increase due to the return of
this region with C-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained
at
background level over the past 24 hours.
The Earth remained inside a slow solar wind flow. The speed has further
decreased from about 400 to 330 Km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude remained below 6 nT and the Bz component fluctuated between -5
and 5 nT. The associated fast solar wind to the small equatorial coronal
hole that has crossed the central meridian on Sept 20 has not arrived yet
and is expected to arrive at Earth today. A new larger coronal hole with
positive polarity is currently facing Earth. This coronal hole is elongated
from the north solar pole to the solar Equator and its high speed stream
is
expected to arrive at Earth in about 3 days from now (on Sept 27).
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet with Kp (NOAA) and local K (Dourbes)
indexes ranging between 1-2. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to
become more active with the arrival of the high speed stream from the
coronal hole that has crossed the central meridian on Sept 20. As this
coronal hole was relatively small, no strong or sever magnetic storm is
expected.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 023, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70924 1230/ 23///
1//// 20810 3007/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70924 1230/ 22/06 24102
10056 2//// 3//// 472// 50070 60001 25513 01000
99999
USSPS 21305 22145 01132 76011 25213 3/801
USSPS 32404 22067 02222 75003 48809 2/801 77007 25513 2/801
UMAGF 30503 70924 1004/ 23069 1/009 21111 33111
UMAGF 31523 70924 0000/ 23000 1/007 21111 31242
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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