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CX2SA > SWPC 29.09.17 23:21l 60 Lines 2112 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21201-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170929/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21201 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21201-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01
Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 715 km/s at 28/2100Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38411
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (30 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 090
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 041/044
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 012/016-011/014-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/50/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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