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CX2SA > SWPC 01.10.17 23:25l 61 Lines 2200 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21564-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171001/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21564 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21564-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03
Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 30/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 01/0529Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/0529Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14651 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 086
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 086/086/084
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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