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CX2SA > SWPC 04.10.17 23:22l 61 Lines 2204 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21914-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171004/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21914 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21914-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 04/0043Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 04/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8352 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Oct, 06 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on day three (07 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 087
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 087/087/085
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/20/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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