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CX2SA > SWPC 05.10.17 23:22l 63 Lines 2301 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21995-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171005/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21995 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21995-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1341Z from Region 2683 (N13W58). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 05/2041Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
05/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5863 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Oct) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 085
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 085/082/080
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/ 009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 005/005-008/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/45/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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