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CX2SA > SWPC 08.10.17 23:26l 61 Lines 2188 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22408-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171008/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22408 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22408-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 467 km/s at 08/1501Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
07/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/0244Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 227 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (10 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11
Oct).
III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 077
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 076/074/074
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 006/005-007/008-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/35
Minor Storm 01/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/25/65
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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