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CX2SA > SWPC 14.10.17 23:23l 60 Lines 2187 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23026-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171014/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23026 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23026-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 758 km/s at 14/0736Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 14/0033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 14/0316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 32632 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (15 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 069
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 026/050
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 024/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 015/020-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/35/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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