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CX2SA > SWPC 19.10.17 23:23l 61 Lines 2253 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23575-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171019/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23575 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23575-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (20 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 19/2100Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/1546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
19/1452Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 38618 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (20 Oct, 22 Oct)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 073
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 074/078/082
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 008/008-007/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/20/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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