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OK0NAG > SOLAR 20.10.17 13:31l 122 Lines 4113 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2017 12:30:18 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU293
UGEOA 30512 71020 1230/ 9930/
10202 21202 30202
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 20 Oct 2017 until 22 Oct
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The Sun produced only two very low B flares in the past 24 hours.
The probability for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 25%,
mostly from returning NOAA region 2682 which is approaching the East limb.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.
Solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR increased from about 375 km/s to a
maximum around 500 km/s near 21h UT on October 19, with current values
around 450 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly
directed away from the Sun and its magnitude ranged between about 3 and
11
nT. Bz was often below -5 nT between 12h and 18h UT on October 19, which
is
when solar wind speed was still in its ascending phase. This solar wind
with elevated parameters probably originates from the (positive) north
polar coronal hole. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes
between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) were registered in the past 24
hours. Active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on October
20
and 21. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected
on October 22.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71020 1230/ 19///
10000 20730 3014/ 4//// 80000 90000
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71020 1230/ ///// /////
99999
USSPS 31405 20070 00032
UMAGF 30503 71020 1004/ 19062 1/022 22123 33342
UMAGF 31523 71020 0000/ 19006 1/014 24222 32433
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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