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CX2SA > SWPC 21.10.17 23:23l 63 Lines 2332 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23858-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171021/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23858 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23858-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/2328Z from Region 2685 (S10E85). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Oct,
23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 21/2040Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 21/1325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
21/1215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3951 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Oct), quiet levels on day
two (23 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (24 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 077
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 080/082/084
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 009/010-005/005-012/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/30
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 25/10/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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