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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.10.17 13:32l 121 Lines 4217 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2017 12:30:42 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
:Issued: 2017 Oct 22 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU295
UGEOA 30512 71022 1230/ 9930/
11222 20222 30222
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 22 Oct 2017 until 24 Oct
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 007
COMMENT: New NOAA region 2685 (identical to returning region 2682, rotating
into view at the East limb) is currently the only sunspot region on the
solar disk as seen from Earth. Returning region 2683 produced a B3.3 flare
from behind the East limb, peaking at 21:06 UT on October 21. A filament
eruption near 20W 20N was observed in GONG and AIA images around 18:13
UT
on October 21, apparently without corresponding Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME). C flares are possible in the next 24 hours (55% probability), with
a
chance for an M flare (15% probability). No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at nominal levels.
Solar wind speed registered by DSCOVR increased from about 380 to a maximum
of about 510 km/s around 2h UT on October 22, and then gradually decreased
to current values around 430 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between about 2 and 12 nT, with current values
around 3.5 nT. The IMF was directed towards the Sun and Bz had a negative
excursion around -5 nT between about 21:30 and 23:30 UT. Quiet to active
conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) were
registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels
(K
Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 22, 23 and 24.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71022 1230/ 21///
1//// 20770 3012/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71022 1230/ ///// /////
99999
UMAGF 30503 71022 1004/ 21061 1/021 22222 33432
UMAGF 31523 71022 0000/ 21002 1/012 22222 32334
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