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CX2SA > SWPC 23.10.17 23:23l 63 Lines 2329 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24103-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171023/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24103 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24103-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (24 Oct, 25 Oct)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 23/0425Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 23/0046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
23/0649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 518 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), active to
major storm levels on day two (25 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (26 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 078
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 078/078/077
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/022-028/045-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/35
Minor Storm 25/40/25
Major-severe storm 05/20/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 65/75/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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