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CX2SA > SWPC 25.10.17 23:23l 61 Lines 2222 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24314-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171025/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24314 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24314-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 25/1945Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 25/0157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 25/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 079
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 079/078/077
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 022/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 019/024-013/016-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 45/35/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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