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CX2SA > SWPC 16.03.15 14:26l 60 Lines 2165 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16081_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<I3LUG<IZ3LSV<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<XE1FH<9Y4PJ<N9PMO<
CX2SA
Sent: 150222/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:16081 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:16081_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb,
24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
370 km/s at 21/2125Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2129Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2331Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 118
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 120/120/130
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 008/010-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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