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CX2SA > SWPC 10.11.17 23:33l 60 Lines 2183 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26179-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<CX2SA
Sent: 171110/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:26179 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:26179-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 719 km/s at 10/1257Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 10/0519Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 10/0606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 17453 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 069
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 069/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 014/020-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/20
Minor Storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 45/20/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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