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CX2SA > SWPC 16.03.15 14:27l 61 Lines 2243 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15724_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<I3LUG<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<N6RME<CX2SA
Sent: 150215/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:15724 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:15724_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb,
18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
386 km/s at 15/1742Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1336Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0821Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 316 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 120
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 012/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/40/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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