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CX2SA > SWPC 15.11.17 23:23l 61 Lines 2179 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26698-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171115/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:26698 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:26698-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 15/1815Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 15/1858Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
15/1543Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7864 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17
Nov, 18 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 074
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 010/012-013/014-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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