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CX2SA > SWPC 20.11.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2208 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27180-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171120/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27180 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27180-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 20/2048Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/1622Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
20/1621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3310 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (22 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(23 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 074
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 074/074/073
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 013/018-012/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/35/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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