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CX2SA > SWPC 21.11.17 23:25l 60 Lines 2200 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27269-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<WA7V<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 171121/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27269 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27269-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 21/1436Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 21/0234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 21/0433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 300 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (24 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 073
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 074/073/072
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 023/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 015/018-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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