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HP2BWJ > SWPC 26.11.17 02:23l 54 Lines 1960 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 3523-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171126/0109Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:3523 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 24/2333Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 24/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 703 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 074
Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 25 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 006/005-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 01/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/35
Major-severe storm 15/50/40
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