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CX2SA > SWPC 04.12.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2216 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28670-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171204/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:28670 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:28670-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 04/2020Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 04/1653Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
04/1652Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 175 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (05 Dec), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on
day three (07 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 068
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 026/034-014/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 35/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 70/55/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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