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CX2SA > SWPC 12.12.17 23:23l 60 Lines 2189 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29323-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171212/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29323 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29323-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 12/1545Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/2334Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
12/1650Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 341 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (15 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 071
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 011/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 35/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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