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CX2SA > SWPC 13.12.17 23:23l 60 Lines 2165 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29406-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171213/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29406 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29406-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 12/2340Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 12/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1218Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 235 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 072
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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