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OK0NAG > SOLAR 14.12.17 13:37l 124 Lines 4214 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2017 12:33:46 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2017 Dec 14 1233 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU348
UGEOA 30512 71214 1233/ 9930/
10142 22142 30142
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 14 Dec 2017 until 16 Dec
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 027
COMMENT: The Sun only produced three low B flares in the past 24 hours.
The
chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth-
directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.
In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR gradually
decreased from about 480 to about 420 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) was directed away from the Sun and its magnitude ranged between
about 2 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. A high speed stream from a
recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive in the
second half of December 15 or early on December 16. Quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and
3)
were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels
(K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 14 and the first half of December
15. Active to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes 4 or 5) are possible in
the second half of December 15 and on December 16, with a slight chance
for
moderate geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6), due to the expected
arrival of a high speed stream from a recurrent positive equatorial coronal
hole.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71214 1233/ 13///
1//// 20720 3011/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71214 1233/ ///// /////
99999
USSPS 31405 14100 00032
USSPS 21305 12189 01242 88000 21805 01202
UMAGF 30503 71214 1004/ 13062 1/016 21112 33332
UMAGF 31523 71214 0000/ 13008 1/011 21021 32344
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