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HP2BWJ > SWPC 15.12.17 14:34l 53 Lines 1923 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 5438-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171215/1327Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:5438 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 13/2114Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 14/0046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/2343Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 248 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Dec, 16 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on day three (17 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 072
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/35
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