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CX2SA > SWPC 15.12.17 23:24l 60 Lines 2185 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29568-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171215/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29568 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29568-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 390 km/s at 14/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
15/1414Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 276 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Dec), quiet to active levels on day
two (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 072
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 072/072/074
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 006/005-010/012-019/026
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/40
Minor Storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/35/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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