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OK0NAG > SOLAR    16.12.17 13:51l 124 Lines 4248 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2017 12:30:18 GMT
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2017 Dec 16 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU350
UGEOA 30512 71216 1230/ 9930/ 
10162 21162 30162 
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 16 Dec 2017 until 18 Dec 
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance 
for
a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. A filament eruption 
near
25S 40E was observed in GONG H-alpha and SDO/AIA 304 A images around 12h 
UT
on December 15. An associated CME was detected by CACTUS in LASCO C2 images

at 12:12 UT, with an estimated low speed of 284 km/s using COR2 A J-maps.

This CME may arrive at Earth (probability: 20%), in which case it should

arrive early on December 20 according to the drag based model. The greater

than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.
Solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR suddenly increased from about 345 to

370 km/s around 21:30 UT on December 15. Afterwards, it gradually decreased

to current values around 340 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)

was mainly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude ranged between

about 0.5 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Quiet geomagnetic conditions

(K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in 
the
past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on December

16 and 17, with a slight chance for minor geomagnetic storm intervals (K

Dourbes = 5), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a

recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions

(K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 18.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71216 1230/ 15/// 
10000 20720 3003/ 4//// 80000 90000 
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 

NONE
END

UGEOR 30512 71216 1230/ ///// ///// 
99999
UMAGF 30503 71216 1004/ 15062 1/006 20121 31100
UMAGF 31523 71216 0000/ 15001 1/003 20001 32212

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