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HP2BWJ > SWPC 20.12.17 14:44l 54 Lines 1945 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 5701-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<GB7CIP<N9LYA<W9ABA<XE1FH<VE2PKT<VK4TUB<LU4ECL<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171218/1947Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:5701 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 17/1531Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 17/1044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 17/0339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 901 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (18 Dec, 19
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 071
Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 17 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 017/022-014/020-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 55/55/45
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