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HP2BWJ > SOLAR 20.12.17 14:44l 60 Lines 2139 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 5702-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: NOAA 3-Day Forecast Discussion
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<GB7CIP<N9LYA<W9ABA<XE1FH<VE2PKT<VK4TUB<LU4ECL<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171218/1949Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:5702 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SOLAR@CEAM
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Dec 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. There
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next
three days (18-20 Dec).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
peak flux of 2,658 pfu observed at 18/0835 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
days one through three (18-20 Dec) in response to elevated wind speeds
from a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated influence from a recurrent, positive
polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds averaged about 610 km/s through the period
with a maximum speed of 671 km/s observed at 18/0329 UTC. Total field
(Bt) achieved a maximum of near 11 nT while the Bz component was
variable between +/-8 nT. Phi was oriented in a positive solar sector
throughout the period.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to continue at elevated levels
for the duration of the forecast period (18-20 Dec). An additional
enhancement is possible late on day two (19 Dec) due to glancing blow
impacts from the 15 Dec CME.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to
influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm
levels on days one and two (18-19 Dec) under persistent CH HSS effects.
Quiet to active conditions are expected on day three (20 Dec) due to
combined influence from residual CH HSS effects and potential glancing
blow impact from the 15 Dec CME.
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