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HP2BWJ > SWPC 20.12.17 15:05l 54 Lines 1957 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 5807-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<GB7CIP<N9LYA<W9ABA<XE1FH<LU3DVN<VE2PKT<VK4TUB<LU4ECL<
HP2BWJ
Sent: 171219/1918Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:5807 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 671 km/s at 18/0329Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 17/2133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
17/2131Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5978 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Dec), unsettled levels on
day two (20 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 072
Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 18 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 016/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 015/015-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/30/20
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